Pakistan Insurgencies

CNN - Afghanistan Crossroads - US Officials: Multiple insurgencies overwhelming Pakistan

According to the article Pakistan is "nation under siege." When was that not the case. Since it's inception as a Muslim country Pakistan has been under siege from one outside actor or another. India, Afghanistan, Iran, US, Russia etc. etc.

In 1971 half of the country was lost.

Fast forward to present day quagmire. The nuclear weapons are at the top of the open issues. Word on the street is that it's in the interest of US to somehow control the cache of nuclear tipped missiles and neutralize them. The hawks at the Pentagon are having sleepless nights and they have not spared a moment to see that this Muslim country's defenses are weakened for good. The resistance within Pakistan continues, for now under the banner of national pride. National pride? Its matter of national survival. But, in the process lives are being lost and greater enemies are being created that will perpetuate the cycle of violence for years to come.

In Afghanistan, after the election of Mr. Obama, US could have taken the high road to reconciliation while many factors play themselves out in the background. On the contrary, and against his better judgement while breaking his campaign promises, the Obama government decided to escalate and up the ante. He inherited the current crop of generals and they decided, at the military's recommendations, to continue the status quo: take no prisoners; make not peace with anybody; eliminate rather than integrate. In the process what is happening is that the insurgency is being pushed out of Afghanistan into Pakistan. Problem solved? Yes, of the nuclear arms since that will allow US to "create" the atmosphere to pressure Pakistan to give up its nukes. Pakistan without nukes is a sitting duck for any taker.

Internal problems and strife abound in Pakistan. Anything and everything goes to the highest bidder.

What Pakistan needs is open access to the most sophisticated arms and first rate training. The current crop of US operatives in Pakistan with their covert support for the Pakistani army, under the watchful eyes of Indian interests, is never going to do the job. The people of Pakistan, just like many times in the past, have bought the idea of Pakistan being an ally of US and want some action from US instead of empty promises.

The second rate under secretaries of defense and that of the state department, the trainees, should be replaced with somebody who has some clout to push the process through congress for substantial and real aid at the right place. They need to select people from outside, Pakistanis who have lived in US, Europe, Asia, or the Gulf countries to spearhead the distribution of the money allocated for aid to Pakistan. To head the progress and see through the completion of projects. Anybody from the inside is too corrupt to make a difference.

There is some hope for Pakistan and by proxy for Afghanistan but time is running out fast. As the article points out, the insurgency that was quelled is raising its ugly head back up and this time it will be twice as difficult to control it.

Headline: Pakistai Forces Capture Top Taliban

When Will Pakistan Get Any Respect

Kudos all around for Pakistan. Even from America and most of all from American media. Although the media coverage is still muffled and mealy mouthed. These things are absolutely unheard of. Is this the change Obama promised the world? Is this start of something new?

Pakistan can do no right. For years everybody has maligned Pakistan for not killing their own people, for having to work with archaic equipment, for having to deal with sanctions, tariffs, custom duties and countless other ways that have hamstrung them from making any progress against the forces of evil. Not only that but it has damaged the industry, education and everything in between. Yes there is corruption, yes there are actors in Pakistan working on both sides, but name one country that does not have that problem. Name just one country please.

For years Pakistan has been blamed for Afghanistan's internal problems while ineptitude and corruption in and outside of Afghan government has gone unnoticed. The same corruption that has been going on for years including Karzai telling the opium growers to continue producing opium has just now surfaced because it is in the interest of NATO and the US to bring that out after the botched elections.

The best way forward with Pakistan is to give them what they need in training, sophisticated warfare equipment, tanks, drones, and aeroplanes. State department should remove the hoops the Pakistanis have to jump to get even a lousy night vision goggles. Pakistan has the talent and the know how to take advantage of these "facilities" and reign in the actors that are colluding with anybody that America thinks is working against their interest. Perhaps they have shown too much talent in the past that soon after the new technology is sold to Pakistan they have come up with their own by reverse engineering.

More importantly, they need to tell Karzai to straighten his own house and stop the corruption in his government. Some but not enough of that is happening. One way to deal with the people of Afghanistan: kill all the Pashtuns, Pakhtoons, and Uzbek. Another way: give these majorities their rights and allow them to participate in the government. People of Afghanistan are tired of war and they are tired of interference from outside. People of Afghanistan are tired of proxy wars and wars for saving face. People of Afghanistan want to be left alone.

People of Pakistan are tired of having their sovereignty taken away. People of Pakistan are tired of politicians that are sold out to foreign governments for pittance, and they are tired of not being able to practice freedom in their own country. People are tired of living in fear. People of Pakistan want to be left alone and find their own way out.

The recent advances in democracy in Pakistan, although not perfect, are a clear indication of that. Will America oblige?

Let There Be A Nuclear Iran

Why Is The West Afraid Of Nuclear Iran?

It's not what you think.

Why is a nuclear Iran such a huge problem for the west? This question is raised time and again and the answer is always the same. The lie about what the Ayatollah may have said about wiping Israel from the face of the earth which is not entirely a bad idea but its not something to be entertained rather seriously.

That itself is astounding. What you see in the news is reality. What you hear over and over again is reality. If you hear it long enough it becomes the truth and anybody who questions the truth must be crazy. That is the logic behind pushing the lie over and over and again. We have seen that time and again and the lie about what the ayatollah may have said is no exception. Top that with more lies by attributing that lie to the current regime in Iran. Nobody is a fan of the current regime but that is not because they are illegitimate or because we want to question what they want in nuclear know how. What they want is their inalienable right and nobody has any question about that. (except the media of course) The dislike is over the ignorance of how to handle this situation. The colourlessness goes far and wide and plagues the entire middle east. With all the money they have they could buy each and every journalist outright for life. All journalists are for sale, many for a fairly small amount of money. Many just for the opportunity to see their name in print and media. But then again, the leaders of the middle east have no clue how to go about doing that.

coming back to the issue at hand; why is the west so apprehensive about Iran acquiring nuclear know how. Nuclear bombs in Iran are a far cry because first Iran has to perfect the technology for producing, enriching etc. of Uranium. Not an easy task. It will be twenty plus years before they are anywhere close to making indigenous warheads. It took Pakistan years to do that and it required collaboration with many countries including France.

The overwhelming reason why the west is so afraid of any Muslim country getting nuclear know how is because the larger ramifications of technology acquisition and transfer. Of course this is not new technology but there are many other related technologies that come with general know how of nuclear technology. Medical, electrical, energy to name a few. This Independence is what scares the west. After the fall of Ottoman empire there was wholesale destruction of the written proof of advances made in science by Muslim scholars. Today nobody knows the advances made during that time and it is as if we started the world after the WWII and nothing existed before that. Let's look at each region/country separately and how the government and people are oppressed to keep them in check.

The Middle East: Middle East as a region includes major portion of all the Muslim countries. They are by far the most wealthy and well off. However, those, as a result or consequence, are the people least likely to advance in strategic knowledge. Saudi Arabian youths come to the US universities, get educated and go back home. However, the easy availability of cheap labors compels them to rather hire somebody to do the work than do the work themselves. They import people from the subcontinent and have them work at rates they agree or rates that market would bear. There are many American expatriates that go to Saudi Arabia, get paid really well, get housing and other allowances, and do whatever is asked of them. Other countries follow suite. The oil extracted from Middle eastern soil is bought at fraction of its real price, refined to umpteenth other uses and that technology has never passed on because of the agreement clauses and other legal mumbo jumbo.

The Indian Subcontinent: When Brits left India and divided the subcontinent into Pakistan and India, and later Bangladesh the division was such that all the factories, schools, colleges, and major universities remained in place in India. The monuments and the main places for tourist attraction were all part of India. All the major government installations and hubs were in the Indian part of the subcontinent. The rivers flow downstream to Pakistan with control of those rivers in India. At the start Pakistan was saddled with a part of its own that was thousand miles over the hostile Indian territory. All flights had to go around the Indian ocean to bypass Indian airspace. This was a huge strategic disadvantage. Imagine the burden all of that placed on a newly independent country.

Fast forward to the current situation. With all those problems inherited it's no wonder Pakistan is struggling with its economy, literacy, industry, the infrastructure etc. It is struggling against overwhelming odds that were stacked against this country right from the time of its Independence.

Africa: The poorest, the most neglected, and the most exploited continent on the face of the planet earth. From Egypt to Ghana to Zimbabwe, the odds of any country making any substantial progress are minimal at best. For centuries the Gold and Diamonds, the most precious and sought after minerals, are being extracted and the wealth of nations plundered by few large western enterprises who buy influence and never allow their dirty laundry to come out in full view. They have the local politicians on their payroll and nothing can change until all of that wealth is gone. The movie Blood Diamond was a pretty fair expose of what really happens but the core of the matter was dropped by the mainstream media promptly after the buzz about the movie died.

when you talk to anybody they will be happy to tell you and remind you that the change will have to come from inside. They will contend that people must make the change to make their country better. Then they will move to leadership gap. Then finally they will say it's the literacy or the lack thereof that's causing these problems. Although all of these factors must be considered to formulate a policy of change, they neglect to mention the most important factor: The will, the demand, and might of the superpower to keep the status quo. The superpower and its allies must not allow any substantial progress from taking place. Which brings us full circle back to Iranian nuclear issue. The main reason why American politicians through its client state of Israel want to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear know how is to prevent that country, and any other country for that matter, to acquire any sophisticated technology that may lead to Independence from it's hegemony. They know very well that it will be years, probably more like decades for Iran to develop full capability of its own to develop nuclear arsenal. However the perception that is being pushed by the very controlled media is that of imminent danger. The perception that something must be done to stop the Iranians from acquiring nuclear know how right now. It must be done now to stop them from getting handle on the technology.

At the same time name any Muslim country and along comes the list of policies in place to keep them exactly where they were about 100 years ago. There are people in high places whose only job is to make sure no progress is made in any substantial way in any of these countries. The so called think tanks are churning out policy papers that the lawmakers take as Gospel. For example, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is in danger, not from the likes of Taliban, but from US who would want to force the hands of Pakistani politicians to dismantle it and take the nuclear tips off them. The goal is to de-fang Pakistan, the one Muslim country set to and capable of making most advances in science and technology. Do they not need the nuclear plants to generate electricity? Do they not need the medical technology? Obviously not, according to the think tanks. It will be "provided" for them. It will be given to them when US wants to give it to them. As long as they are good boys and girls and do as US tell them to do we will keep providing them with what they need. One step out of line and all of that stops. Where does that leave Pakistan.

They want Iran to agree to have nuclear fuel processed elsewhere. The same doctrine as the Pakistan doctrine applies to Iran. The real purpose of this demand is to make sure if they stray out of line we will have the strings that can be pulled to bring them back in line. Iran has no choice but to go independent with its nuclear technology. Iran must develop full nuclear cycle on its own. It should conduct all the tests necessary to make sure everything is in place for next generation to take it to the next level. It will not only give them alternative to fast depleting energy sources, and the much needed medical isotopes but it will create new high end jobs, it will create national pride, and it will be good for the middle east. These are the foremost reasons to one other one: the non-proliferation treaty gives them the full rights to do what they have done so far.

The question is: is Iran willing to pay the price that it must to make that happen?

Policy: America's Pakistan Dilemma

Writing's On The Wall

Is anybody reading it

The advent of democracy in Pakistan has left many without a cause to bash Pakistan. Its not perfect but its as close its going to get for now. In the halls of congress on both sides, the House and the Senate this little advance has many looking for other ways to convince the president that Pakistan remains the rogue state it was before Musharraf was president.

They are finding that reason in the relatively new phenomenon of Pakistani Taliban. Pakistani Taliban did not exist before Afghanistan was attacked by US forces. Who created this problem for Pakistan? Could this have been handled better? Could hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars have been saved if this was approached with diplomacy after the fall of Taliban and Al Kaeda or more precisely soon after a legitimate Afghan government was sworn in?

The answers to those questions is a resounding yes! But was anybody thinking?

When Taliban found themselves pushed back in Afghanistan they adapted to their worsening influence faster than the US war machine. The US war machine was still celebrating and they were looking for an outright victory without realizing what that would require. The most important thing they neglected was the fact that those who were fighting against us had not seen anything but war for last 6-7 generations. They had partners on both sides of the border for centuries plus the intimidation factor. Top that with innate hatred of an occupying force from thousands of miles away regardless of the cause or reason and you have the sure making of an insurgency whose strength can test yours any day. And since most of these people are illiterate because of the ravages of war they have no clue what is democracy and more importantly what to do with it once they have it. Alliances were formed quickly and we have the making of Pakistani Taliban. This gave them base to work from, the sympathy of a thousand and one people, and the cause to fight for yet another day. We created the Pakistani Taliban and now, years later, we are having to deal with it with money and might. Are we getting anywhere fast?

Had we known ABC of what Afghanistan is all about we would have started the negotiations with anybody and everybody right after a legitimate government was formed in Kabul. Until most recently it was legitimate. These are people of Afghanistan. It's their homeland. They must have rights, they must be given a voice in the government, they must be shown some respect as citizens. Isn't that what democracy is all about. The alternative: carpet bomb them, get rid of them and start over again. For that we needed to bring in a ruthless dictator and not democracy. Unfortunately US had nothing but revenge on their mind.

We have come to realization now that diplomacy and negotiations is the only way forward. Was there a single voice of dissent in the lead up to where we are now? If there was one it was muffled so well that nobody could hear it. Being stubborn and stupid, being in the clutches of the war machine that controls Washington, being power drunk for so many years, and being lame duck for last two years of his presidency was no help for Bush to not come up with diplomacy. There is no surprise there.

Although the negotiations are going on, not enough legitimacy is being given to these negotiations. A lower level operative from state department is assigned to look after this issue. The operative is at such a low level that we don't know his/her name. In the meantime we are preparing for an offensive with hundreds of thousands of more Afghan citizens displaced from their homes, pushed out to Pakistan and other places, exacerbating an already acute problem to and emergency.

Americans need to realize that there is no military solution to this problem. Forty thousand, fifty thousand or hundred thousand troops are not going to matter. The victory, if they get any, will be temporary and short lived, a la Iraq. They need to realize that negotiations is the only way to resolve this issue. Pashtun, shias, the Tajiks, the Pathans, and the rest of the ethnicities that make up Afghanistan must be given their rights and representations. Without doing that there will never be a solution and Afghanistan will be the failed state that it is for last 50 or so years.

The Indian power play for the supremacy over Pakistan from both sides needs to be mitigated. This has been an issue that has never been addressed and never been brought to the fore for any discussion. India's hand in the continued destabilization of Afghanistan is something that has been kept muffled and under the cover for last several years. The foothold that Indians want in Afghanistan to be able to checkmate Pakistan is something that is promoted and discussed behind closed doors only at the highest levels within Washington and Delhi. Anybody denying that have absolutely no clue about the reality on the ground. One clue for the uninitiated: look up the number of Indian consulates across Afghanistan. They are not there for no reason.

Once there is negotiated settlement with various ethnicities within Afghanistan the Pakistani Taliban will disappear overnight. Pakistani people are tired of murder and bloodshed. They are tired of uncertainty. They are tired of being blamed for every problem in the sub-continent. They are tired of their politicians raking in money given to them from both sides, the Taliban and Washington. They are tired of seeing the future of their kids blown away by drones and the mercenaries of Blackwater. Pakistani people want the progress they have seen after the opening up of media during the Musharraf years. They want the same luxuries the rest of the world have. They want to do an honest day's work, and spend time with their families. Will America allow that to happen?